Predicting Mutual Fund Over-Performance Over a Nine-Year-Period

Written By: Gabriel Asebedo and John Grable

The purpose of this paper is to determine if, using historical data, it would have been possible to use a buy-and-hold strategy from January 1, 1995 through December 31, 2003 that resulted in a selection of funds that consistently outperformed other mutual funds. This study attempts to address several methodological issues commonly found in mutual fund performance research such as fund mergers, fund liquidations, name changes, and survivorship bias. Results support the hypothesis that low cost mutual funds tend to outperform higher cost funds over multiple time periods, and that short-term performance shows persistence of returns. Key word: mutual fund performance

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